Comment on Week 1

Hypergeometric Distribution:

Wiki page

Just a little comment on probability distributions in poker. This is the most important one when working out stuff in poker, because you can't just put cards in the deck, once they are gone or used, they're gone and all probabilities are worked out considering that.

A couple of weeks ago we had a post dealing with "flushdrawitis" and people being very scared that when there was a "flush draw" on the board. Is that MUBS. Well, we can work out the probability of getting a flush draw, basically getting a 4 suited in a 5 card draw.

f(4;52,13,5) = (13 choose 4) (39 choose 1) / (52 choose 5) = ~10.73%

Don't get distracted by which suit, it's not important here. So if you are up against one opponent (assume you have some random cards), he will have a flush draw about 11% of the time -> not scary, but agains 4 opponents... well, you be the judge.

Solutions for week 1 have been sent out. I'm working on week 2 assignments right now. Should be up tonight. You can still, at any time send in assignments for previous weeks. There is no "late" here.